![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_b.png?x-id=6bd35180-30de-44be-8c89-4ad47794b31b)
Showing posts with label RBI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RBI. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
RBI Sells Asian Assets
The Geldof backed Tenalps, home of Kent TV and Teachers TV has acquired some magazine assets from RBI in Asia. This follows the disposal of assets in the USA and Australia. No news of the moneys involved but it won't make much of a difference to the Reed Elesevier balance sheet. What about the UK? What will the RE CEO say in March when Reed is next due to update the world on its strategy. It should be wholsesale change, or asset sales or both, but is more likely to be, holding on for the recovery - which would be a mistake wouldn't it?
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble
We have known for a long time that business media companies are in trouble. But it is only just now that the chickens are coming home to roost. The failed sale of RBI will be seen as a watershed moment, after which the reality of the horrors we face began to be faced up to.
Investors in Emap have written down the value of their investment. Investors in Incisive (which overlap) are coming to terms with the news that their equity is all but worthless and the banks will end up owning the business.
William Reed has culled at at least 20% of its headcount. Centaur has been doing the same as it struggles on with reduced profits and little cash (but luckily for them little debt) Most other business media companies are reducing their headcount progressively, chasing the revenue downwards and hoping that things will get better.
Every week sees more magazine closures. There is no end in sight to the ad gloom. Recruitment has gone for ever and display is mortally wounded.
The hope in online is often countered by the grim reality of poor ad revenues there too. Emap announced last week that it is putting much of its content behind a subs wall, having discovered that giving it all away is hurting paid copy sales and the extra ad revenue doesn't cover the gap. This flip flop in strategy won't work not least until they stop worrying about print cannibalisation
Everywhere we look the strategies are defensive. Where is the new model? Where is the creativity that will turn the old magazine publishing businesses into growth businesses for the future? Yes there are pockets of interesting things happening in all the business media enterprises, but none of them have a whole business vision.
Meanwhile in idle tittle tattle I hear a rumour that Les Kelly, the Wilmington exec who presided over the closure then sale of Press Gazette is leaving the business.
Investors in Emap have written down the value of their investment. Investors in Incisive (which overlap) are coming to terms with the news that their equity is all but worthless and the banks will end up owning the business.
William Reed has culled at at least 20% of its headcount. Centaur has been doing the same as it struggles on with reduced profits and little cash (but luckily for them little debt) Most other business media companies are reducing their headcount progressively, chasing the revenue downwards and hoping that things will get better.
Every week sees more magazine closures. There is no end in sight to the ad gloom. Recruitment has gone for ever and display is mortally wounded.
The hope in online is often countered by the grim reality of poor ad revenues there too. Emap announced last week that it is putting much of its content behind a subs wall, having discovered that giving it all away is hurting paid copy sales and the extra ad revenue doesn't cover the gap. This flip flop in strategy won't work not least until they stop worrying about print cannibalisation
Everywhere we look the strategies are defensive. Where is the new model? Where is the creativity that will turn the old magazine publishing businesses into growth businesses for the future? Yes there are pockets of interesting things happening in all the business media enterprises, but none of them have a whole business vision.
Meanwhile in idle tittle tattle I hear a rumour that Les Kelly, the Wilmington exec who presided over the closure then sale of Press Gazette is leaving the business.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Travel Mags in Trouble?
Rumours uncomfirmed that Penny Wilson Editor in Chief of RBI's Travel Weekly has gone. Also unconfirmed that UBM's TTG is to go online only.
I guess we just have to wait for the news about how any such change reflects the continued success of the magazine rather than an admission that this would be further evidence of the urgent need for a new magazine model.
I guess we just have to wait for the news about how any such change reflects the continued success of the magazine rather than an admission that this would be further evidence of the urgent need for a new magazine model.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Musn't Grumble
It has been a busy week for the public companies. Centaur Media saw its' share price fall to a new low of 17p and the directors actively buying shares presumably to make it tougher for unwelcome predators to scoop up the company. UBM produced results which prove that having just 10% of the business in print is good thing which could only be bettered by having less than 10% of the business in print. Most interestingly United Business Media claimed that rebooks on next years shows are up 5%. That is not only surprising, but also encouraging. Of course a rebook is not necessarily the same thing as contract to attend, but with so little good news around this certainly put a smile on my face.
Since we last spoke Reed Elsevier posted its results too and with most of its business in online subscriptions they were good. Also announced was a £120m reorganisation of RBI. This has to mean job cuts, but as far as I am aware no news yet of a 90 day consultation in the UK (a legal requirement if 100 job cuts are proposed).
Wilmington also produced respectable results and claimed they were looking for acquisition targets.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=c727bd0f-0085-4197-b0fc-73b4f7586e97)
Since we last spoke Reed Elsevier posted its results too and with most of its business in online subscriptions they were good. Also announced was a £120m reorganisation of RBI. This has to mean job cuts, but as far as I am aware no news yet of a 90 day consultation in the UK (a legal requirement if 100 job cuts are proposed).
Wilmington also produced respectable results and claimed they were looking for acquisition targets.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
RBI UK Starts/Continues Culling Jobs
The first signs of the cull at RBI are emerging. The Guardian reports that 35 redundancies have been announced at UK RBI. At first I thought this must be a mistake and that they have left the zero off the end, but I have checked it out and apparently not.
However, in addition to the redundancies there is an effective hiring freeze so more jobs are likely to go. Also there has been a slow drip, if that is the right word, of redundancies and non replacements over the last few months.
However, whilst no one wants to see people lose their jobs, the plan needs to be more radical than this. Maybe it is.
However, in addition to the redundancies there is an effective hiring freeze so more jobs are likely to go. Also there has been a slow drip, if that is the right word, of redundancies and non replacements over the last few months.
However, whilst no one wants to see people lose their jobs, the plan needs to be more radical than this. Maybe it is.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Business Media Should Merge Back Offices
All of the business media publishers are facing unprecedented challenges. The economic downturn, long term decline in magazine profitability, a threat to profits from events, the challenge of making money from the web and so on.
Publishers long since worked out that there was no competitive advantage in running their own circulation management systems or print plants. Exhibition organisers long since contracted out their on site registration. But why has nobody thought of eliminating permanent costs from other areas of hygiene activity?
One of the benefits of APax owning both Incisive and Emap was the merger synergies. They never happened as crunching the two businesses together would have required a refinancing of the whole deal - and you can understand why that didn't happen. But what is to stop these two businesses sharing back office overhead in finance. Locate the credit cotnrol desks for both businesses in a single location where labour is cheaper than in central London, with one group management providing services to both companies on a SLA.
If it could done for these two companies, why not invite RBI, UBM and Informa to join the party? Each party would own an equity stake in the service company which would be run on a cost plu basis, with any profits returned to the shareholders. Make an agrement to protect the confidetiality of data. Consider inviting smaller publishers to enjoy the benefits of the solution for a fee. Cost savings and a profit share too!
Business media comapnies have worked together before. Tower, the circ bureau grew its business in the nineties on the back of a concord agreement with a cadre of blue chip publishers. The Excel Exhibition Centre was built with funds secured from RBI Emap and UBM amongst others.
How big are the savings? Well lets imnagine that back office finance costs 5% of turnover. Lets pretend we could save 20% of that. If we could process £1b of turonver thats a saving of £10m a year or put another way - on a 10% average profit margin, the equivalent of offsetting £100m of revenue loss. Mmmm.
Publishers long since worked out that there was no competitive advantage in running their own circulation management systems or print plants. Exhibition organisers long since contracted out their on site registration. But why has nobody thought of eliminating permanent costs from other areas of hygiene activity?
One of the benefits of APax owning both Incisive and Emap was the merger synergies. They never happened as crunching the two businesses together would have required a refinancing of the whole deal - and you can understand why that didn't happen. But what is to stop these two businesses sharing back office overhead in finance. Locate the credit cotnrol desks for both businesses in a single location where labour is cheaper than in central London, with one group management providing services to both companies on a SLA.
If it could done for these two companies, why not invite RBI, UBM and Informa to join the party? Each party would own an equity stake in the service company which would be run on a cost plu basis, with any profits returned to the shareholders. Make an agrement to protect the confidetiality of data. Consider inviting smaller publishers to enjoy the benefits of the solution for a fee. Cost savings and a profit share too!
Business media comapnies have worked together before. Tower, the circ bureau grew its business in the nineties on the back of a concord agreement with a cadre of blue chip publishers. The Excel Exhibition Centre was built with funds secured from RBI Emap and UBM amongst others.
How big are the savings? Well lets imnagine that back office finance costs 5% of turnover. Lets pretend we could save 20% of that. If we could process £1b of turonver thats a saving of £10m a year or put another way - on a 10% average profit margin, the equivalent of offsetting £100m of revenue loss. Mmmm.
Seven Percent of RBI Staff to Go Say Reports
Paid Content is reporting that 7% of RBI staff are being laid off. This story is about the US division that includes Variety, but is surely the first signs of a wider cull of costs that will be ipacting on the UK too. Up until last week staff at RBI appeared none the wiser about the nature of the impending cuts but expect news very soon.
The ansswer for RBI is more fundamental than just cutting costs. A new way of publishing magazines must be found and/or a cutting down of the scale of the business to focus on activities and assets that have a good forward growth.
The ansswer for RBI is more fundamental than just cutting costs. A new way of publishing magazines must be found and/or a cutting down of the scale of the business to focus on activities and assets that have a good forward growth.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Online jobs in Decline as Mags Launch and Close
Good news for RBI owned Total Jobs which has topped the Hitwise rankings for most traffic in the online jobs market, beating Monster et al for the third year running.
Bad news for all of them however as Monster reports a fifth consecutive month of decline in job postings, including a massive 11% fall in December alone.
No surprise I guess that there are more people looking for fewer jobs.
Meanwhile, and arguably more surprising a number of b2b magazine launches announced this week, including Dennis launching a title for the b2b poker industry, whilst Centaur is continuing its process of culling underperforming magazines.
Note also a b2b mag launch in the finance sector, for wealth managers as online solution provider Citywire moves into dead trees for I think the first time. Amazing.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=d4bf5744-2f54-4ec8-a7fa-33b6d5f00950)
Bad news for all of them however as Monster reports a fifth consecutive month of decline in job postings, including a massive 11% fall in December alone.
No surprise I guess that there are more people looking for fewer jobs.
Meanwhile, and arguably more surprising a number of b2b magazine launches announced this week, including Dennis launching a title for the b2b poker industry, whilst Centaur is continuing its process of culling underperforming magazines.
Note also a b2b mag launch in the finance sector, for wealth managers as online solution provider Citywire moves into dead trees for I think the first time. Amazing.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
More Closures Mergers and Sales in B2B
Apologies for the light posting. It has been a troublesome start to the New Year. A computer title, Computer Buyer, the lame sister title of Computer Shopper closed by Denis pubishing, Centaur closing and merging a couple of magazines are just two of the bad news stories that have already oozed out of the sector in the last couple of weeks.
Meanwhile Nexus Business Media has sold the last of its magazines to aggregator of old mags, Metropolis. Nexus has expunged its entire print portfolio in the last three years leaving it as a small but online and events only business. CEO, Neil Thackray has stepped down.
No news yet of the inevitable at RBI. Surely they haven't bottled it?
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=c550fc15-d074-4a26-bf60-029e9a68aca4)
Meanwhile Nexus Business Media has sold the last of its magazines to aggregator of old mags, Metropolis. Nexus has expunged its entire print portfolio in the last three years leaving it as a small but online and events only business. CEO, Neil Thackray has stepped down.
No news yet of the inevitable at RBI. Surely they haven't bottled it?
Monday, December 8, 2008
Its a Bit of a Bain, but there is only one bidder left for RBI
The Telegraph reports that only Bain Capital remains in the bid process for RBI at a bid of around £680m - around half the original price. The article also speculates that the proposed deal involves an earn out (ie deferred consideration) and a lock in for key executives.
As gifted as they are, the radical surgery and rethink needed in RBI is not best solved by managers who have been there 25 years. Earn outs are always messy and Reed Elsevier will be reluctant to tie themselves into future consideration over which they have no control.
Bain will consider that either they will have got RBI on the cheap, or by the time the earn out kicks in, the financial markets will be looser and raising funds will less of an issue.
I have no idea whether he is involved in the deal, but a Bain Consulting senior guy is one Graham Elton who was briefly CEO of Miller Freeman UK (now CMPi/United Business Media).
The odds of the deal closing are getting longer. There is every possibility of a withdraw before Christmas.
Deal or no deal, vicious cost cutting will follow rapidly in the new year.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=88f0cc69-4f22-4145-b810-113dc3229d3b)
As gifted as they are, the radical surgery and rethink needed in RBI is not best solved by managers who have been there 25 years. Earn outs are always messy and Reed Elsevier will be reluctant to tie themselves into future consideration over which they have no control.
Bain will consider that either they will have got RBI on the cheap, or by the time the earn out kicks in, the financial markets will be looser and raising funds will less of an issue.
I have no idea whether he is involved in the deal, but a Bain Consulting senior guy is one Graham Elton who was briefly CEO of Miller Freeman UK (now CMPi/United Business Media).
The odds of the deal closing are getting longer. There is every possibility of a withdraw before Christmas.
Deal or no deal, vicious cost cutting will follow rapidly in the new year.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Survival or Receivership
If Lorna Tilbian, the media analysts analyst doesn't know....
"Lorna Tilbian, analyst at Numis, said: “It is Darwinian. The environment is so volatile, people are waiting for weaker players to fall into receivership. The landscape is changing so quickly, how do you value something?”
...then what hope is there for the rest of us trying to make sense of this.
The FT reports old news that the RBI deal is falling in value. It says Reed is "desperate to get the deal done". It shouldn't be. There is a future for RBI - it involves substantive delayering of management, a radical approach to business magazine publishing and inventive solutions to the conundrums that b2b publishing faces. RBI as the biggest player in this place, and as a relatively small part of its parent company can afford to be brave. Will it care to embrace "boundarylessness" as it strategy declaration says it should?
You know the answer.
"Lorna Tilbian, analyst at Numis, said: “It is Darwinian. The environment is so volatile, people are waiting for weaker players to fall into receivership. The landscape is changing so quickly, how do you value something?”
...then what hope is there for the rest of us trying to make sense of this.
The FT reports old news that the RBI deal is falling in value. It says Reed is "desperate to get the deal done". It shouldn't be. There is a future for RBI - it involves substantive delayering of management, a radical approach to business magazine publishing and inventive solutions to the conundrums that b2b publishing faces. RBI as the biggest player in this place, and as a relatively small part of its parent company can afford to be brave. Will it care to embrace "boundarylessness" as it strategy declaration says it should?
You know the answer.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
UBM and RBI News
UBM reports in an interim statement that it has culled 300 jobs and revenues, in print are falling fast. Its building division will see millions wiped off its profit.
In the round thought United reckons it will meet its forecasts but as we have noted before, the trade show business is still benefiting from the forward sales made before the crunch. It is going to get much harder in the coming months I would judge
Meanwhile Gerard Van Der Aast the CEO of RBI worldwide has fallen on his sword amid falling revenues at up for sale RBI. Keith Jones gets the big job -at least until the sale process completes - or doesn't as might well be the case.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=9e3f4f4e-535e-48ba-8599-e918f89dc3c9)
In the round thought United reckons it will meet its forecasts but as we have noted before, the trade show business is still benefiting from the forward sales made before the crunch. It is going to get much harder in the coming months I would judge
Meanwhile Gerard Van Der Aast the CEO of RBI worldwide has fallen on his sword amid falling revenues at up for sale RBI. Keith Jones gets the big job -at least until the sale process completes - or doesn't as might well be the case.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Glass Half Full at RBI
The Telegraph reports that the RBI deal delay means that Reed Elsevier will have to rethink its financing of the Choicepoint deal which was funded by debt, in part to be paid off by the sale of RBI.
All very high finance. But the more interesting throw away in the piece is that estimates of the value of RBI have fallen to a range of £650m to £850m - the low range now being half - yes half of the original price expectation. Remember, RBI is a business that last year made around £150m of profit. It has come to something if the biggest and most succesful business publishing company in the world is only worth 4 times last years earnings.
All very high finance. But the more interesting throw away in the piece is that estimates of the value of RBI have fallen to a range of £650m to £850m - the low range now being half - yes half of the original price expectation. Remember, RBI is a business that last year made around £150m of profit. It has come to something if the biggest and most succesful business publishing company in the world is only worth 4 times last years earnings.
Monday, November 10, 2008
And then there were two....
Apollo has pulled out of the RBI auction leaving just two runners in the race. The heat is fast vanishing from this auction. The double whammy of worsening trading and the difficulty of putting debt finance in place is cooling the deal rapidly.
The price will keep falling (we would be surprised if the deal gets done at more than £800m if it gets done at all.
The price will keep falling (we would be surprised if the deal gets done at more than £800m if it gets done at all.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Reed Deal Falters
Apologies for the light posting, but the real world has rather got in the way of doing this. This is looking like a perfect storm. As an example, The Telegraph reports what you already know. The sale of RBI is in trouble. The staple finance is rumoured to have unravelled a bit with at least one bank pulling out, the price is falling as trading gets worse by the day and the owners, Reed Elsevier will have to provide debt and probably leave some skin in the game to get the deal done at all.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Less than Total Jobs
The long wait for news on the sale of RBI is sapping morale of staff and managers according to insiders. Reed Elsevier CEO has sent recent email that confirms an announcement is expected imminently but the staff are less optimistic and fear that the credit crunch will delay a deal until after Christmas. Meanwhile I undersand that regional offices of star product, Totaljobs have been closed down just 18 months after they were opened.
The downturn has bitten traditional recruitment hard and it seems that job boards are not going to be immune.
The downturn has bitten traditional recruitment hard and it seems that job boards are not going to be immune.
Friday, October 10, 2008
More RBI Uncertainty
Lots to catch up in the last few days, not least the effect of the crunch on the RBI deal. Bloomberg reports that the price continues to fall and that it is by no mean certain that any debt for the deal will get funded.
If the sale goes through there will be blood on the walls as a new owner slashes through the costs. If the deal does not go through there will be blood on the walls as Reed Elsevier slashes through the costs. Reed really want to get the deal done. Whatever the value of RBI today, they will judge it is unlikely to be higher anytime soon.
If the sale goes through there will be blood on the walls as a new owner slashes through the costs. If the deal does not go through there will be blood on the walls as Reed Elsevier slashes through the costs. Reed really want to get the deal done. Whatever the value of RBI today, they will judge it is unlikely to be higher anytime soon.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The Future of Business Media Part 1 - The End of Business
Whilst we wait for news of the RBI deal (the word is that there are two serious bidders in round three, that the deal will get done but at a price closer to £1b than £1.3b) it might be useful to start thinking about what strategy a new owner should employ. What will work for RBI will likely work for other traditional b2b publishers.
Lets begin in this piece by agreeing about what has gone wrong for the business magazine model and then we can consider how each of the issues might be addressed.
1) The paid copy model is dying. There are subscription model opportunities in high level must have data, but not for news and features. The few business magazines that still have paid circulation are strugggling to maintain subscriptions and have seen news trade sales wither.
2) The cost of controlled circulation distribution is increasing as proportion of total costs, partly due to price increases, but also because of the collapse of classified advertsing (See 3). With size based pricing it is not possible to flex the cost down as pagination falls. In a downturn this has important implications for margins.
3) The historic high margin classified and recruitment market has been disintermediated by the web.
4) Free web based information means a news model with a weekly frequency is less than compelling as an essential driver of readership. Although business news consumption and disribution has changed dramatciall in ten years, most weekly business magazines are producing news using the same definition of "news", the same presentation and approach as in 1970. They are of course doing this with fewer journalists than ever.
5) B2B magazine brands have different attributes than they used to enjoy. Once they were beacons of essentailness, independence, trusted sources, bibles of the industry they served. Today a blog is just as likely to be credible to a reader (forget whether this is true or not, it is how readers think) and the gateway to finding stuf out is a search engine, a blog roll, favourites, RSS as well as some residual loyalty to the old brands.
6) Advertisers are doubting the ROI of traditional print advertsing. Many are spending more on SEM, their own sites and email marketing than they are on print. Why spend £3000 on a display page with no proof of readership or noting when for the same money I can buy 300,000 page impressions?
Does this mean the end for business magazines? Not necessarily. But the cure is painful and shocking. I'll come back to this is upcoming posts and share with you my recipe for saving the business magazine industry.
Lets begin in this piece by agreeing about what has gone wrong for the business magazine model and then we can consider how each of the issues might be addressed.
1) The paid copy model is dying. There are subscription model opportunities in high level must have data, but not for news and features. The few business magazines that still have paid circulation are strugggling to maintain subscriptions and have seen news trade sales wither.
2) The cost of controlled circulation distribution is increasing as proportion of total costs, partly due to price increases, but also because of the collapse of classified advertsing (See 3). With size based pricing it is not possible to flex the cost down as pagination falls. In a downturn this has important implications for margins.
3) The historic high margin classified and recruitment market has been disintermediated by the web.
4) Free web based information means a news model with a weekly frequency is less than compelling as an essential driver of readership. Although business news consumption and disribution has changed dramatciall in ten years, most weekly business magazines are producing news using the same definition of "news", the same presentation and approach as in 1970. They are of course doing this with fewer journalists than ever.
5) B2B magazine brands have different attributes than they used to enjoy. Once they were beacons of essentailness, independence, trusted sources, bibles of the industry they served. Today a blog is just as likely to be credible to a reader (forget whether this is true or not, it is how readers think) and the gateway to finding stuf out is a search engine, a blog roll, favourites, RSS as well as some residual loyalty to the old brands.
6) Advertisers are doubting the ROI of traditional print advertsing. Many are spending more on SEM, their own sites and email marketing than they are on print. Why spend £3000 on a display page with no proof of readership or noting when for the same money I can buy 300,000 page impressions?
Does this mean the end for business magazines? Not necessarily. But the cure is painful and shocking. I'll come back to this is upcoming posts and share with you my recipe for saving the business magazine industry.
Friday, September 19, 2008
RBI Losing Value
The Times has reported that second round bids for RBI are way below the target price of £1.2b. This will come as no surprise to readers of this blog. The problem is made worse by the banking crisis which has already scuppered to putative deal for Informa. RBI is heavily exposed to the ad downturn and its high growth totaljobs business is in recruitment - and we know what happens to recruitment.
What will Reed do? We have postulated before that this deal is by no means certain to get done. Will Reed do it at any price? If they don't get it done even at a low valuation is there any real prospect that the business will be worth any more at any time in the forseeable future?
What should RBI do? I have a busy few days ahead, but I plan to offer them some advice (which I am sure they won't take) in a future post. RBI is fixable. It's blody and its painful, but wholly necessary.
What will Reed do? We have postulated before that this deal is by no means certain to get done. Will Reed do it at any price? If they don't get it done even at a low valuation is there any real prospect that the business will be worth any more at any time in the forseeable future?
What should RBI do? I have a busy few days ahead, but I plan to offer them some advice (which I am sure they won't take) in a future post. RBI is fixable. It's blody and its painful, but wholly necessary.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Wilmington Signals No Deal.
The Times is reporting that the long rumoured acquisition of Wilmington by HG Capital won't happen. Apparently it did not porve possible to put the deal finance in place. Ouch! Apart from the immediate downward impact on Wilmington shares, what does this say for othe quoted companies and the RBI deal? ITE, Centaur and SPG would all be happier in the private world, but if Wilmington can't get done, it is hard to see how any of them can escape from dull valuations of their businesses or the lack of liquidity in their stocks. Shareholders may have to be very patient indeed and hope that the businesses survive the curent economic malaise.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)