Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble

We have known for a long time that business media companies are in trouble. But it is only just now that the chickens are coming home to roost. The failed sale of RBI will be seen as a watershed moment, after which the reality of the horrors we face began to be faced up to.

Investors in Emap have written down the value of their investment. Investors in Incisive (which overlap) are coming to terms with the news that their equity is all but worthless and the banks will end up owning the business.

William Reed has culled at at least 20% of its headcount. Centaur has been doing the same as it struggles on with reduced profits and little cash (but luckily for them little debt) Most other business media companies are reducing their headcount progressively, chasing the revenue downwards and hoping that things will get better.

Every week sees more magazine closures. There is no end in sight to the ad gloom. Recruitment has gone for ever and display is mortally wounded.

The hope in online is often countered by the grim reality of poor ad revenues there too. Emap announced last week that it is putting much of its content behind a subs wall, having discovered that giving it all away is hurting paid copy sales and the extra ad revenue doesn't cover the gap. This flip flop in strategy won't work not least until they stop worrying about print cannibalisation

Everywhere we look the strategies are defensive. Where is the new model? Where is the creativity that will turn the old magazine publishing businesses into growth businesses for the future? Yes there are pockets of interesting things happening in all the business media enterprises, but none of them have a whole business vision.

Meanwhile in idle tittle tattle I hear a rumour that Les Kelly, the Wilmington exec who presided over the closure then sale of Press Gazette is leaving the business.

William Reed Get All Digital

William Reed has bought an Internet business! Having struggled for years with what the net is all about, the WR management have done the wisest thing and bought an online only business called Food Navigator.

Promotion to WR audiences should accelerate the subscription growth and at first glance the Food Navigator people are exploiting lots of the revenue streams that WR will need to learn how to deploy if the 100 year business is to survive.

With most of the the profits in WR being in The Grocer, and most of that driven by copy sales and job ads, both of which are terminally compromised this may not be the most expensive deal that WR has ever done, but it is certainly the most important. Let's hope they know how to manage the integation.

Wine oh wine oh wine

Last week William Reed announced the purchase of trade wine mag Harpers from Nexus. There are not too many mag deals getting done right now, but Harpers is a well known brand, has a paid subs base and is a neat fit with the WR stable.

Will WR work out how to convert this into an online subs business?

Grocer Props Up Circ with Discounting

A while ago we were confused about the single isue audit published by the Grocer and feared it was a precursor to some bad news. It wasn't but...



Well, its all a little odd. The Grocer has published its ABC this week and it shows that compared to last year, the non controlled frees have gone, only to be replaced by discounted single copy sales. We don't know what the discount was or where the copies were sold so as ever with matters ABC, when it comes to B2B, the certificates pose more questions than they answer.



What we do know for certain is that full price paid sales either through the trade or by sub are declining. At best The Grocer, and every other paid B2B title is having to discount deep, give away copies or accept a headline fall in circulation

Newstrade sales Boom at The Grocer! No - Really - Its True!

William Reeds, The Grocer, has just posted a single issue audit. Normally we would let these things pass as we are engaged on headier matters, but you will remember my post about the decline in paid circ in b2b. The Grocers single issue audit, dated January, shows a circ of 29631, a 4% drop on the last audit period average.

At first sight alarming. However the reason for the fall is that WR has reduced the number of free copies by 3000 or so . Newstrade sales are up a staggering 4300 but subs are down 1700.

If this reflects what will happen on their annual return, why show a fall in total circ on a single issue audit caused entirely by a publishing decision to reduce free copies. Their rivals will make hay.

My guess is that this single issue audit is a wierd single issue up blip in newstrade sales. All the growth has come from discounted single issue sales. The average, I predict, will be much worse and this is an attempt to prop up a weakening ad sales story.

If newstrade sales have not really grown (and it would be surprising if they had) the average issue certificate could be as low as 23000 when it is published in September - and thats a melt down.

If I were an advertiser, I would want some assurances from The Grocer that the growth in newstrade sales implied by the single issue audit, was reflected across the period. Otherwise I would be forced to reduce my spend.

Lets be clear, there is no point in publishers pretending that things aren't bad and hoping it will get better before anyone notices. WR are a pro outfit, so lets just hope they aren't simply delaying bad news and that this single issue rise in newstrade sales reflects the performance over the audit period.

Don't Panic Mr Mainwaring

Remember Pravte Frazer in Dads Army? This website uses his catch phrase "dont' panic" as a headline on the chronicling of the demise of business magazines in the UK.

He spotted something I missed - the closure of William Reeds Bake and Take magazine or rather its merger with British Baker.

All the news is the b2b sector is in one of three catgeories; magazine closures, redundancies, up for sale. Until the industry finds a way to change this agenda to innovation, launch and renewal I would be very cautious about predicting a happy future.